Spectra and Median Size Mods

Size Analysis of the Northeast US Finfish Community

Published

April 26, 2024

Modeling Change in Median Size and Community Spectra

The following tabs detail how I’m thinking about whether to use SST in Celsius or as anomalies to test our hypotheses about temperature’s impact on size and size structure:

SST Change Over Time

Landings Change Over Time

Landings Verification

Bart raised that his landings looked different, vdrify that we didn’t mess them up in data prep:

Landings and Anomalies Colinearity

Landings Clustering/Bi-modality


Spectra Slope Models

Contemporary SST/Landings Model

effect group term estimate std.error statistic
fixed NA (Intercept) -0.921360717 0.009839746 -93.6366360
fixed NA landings 0.018576979 0.010705595 1.7352589
fixed NA regionGeorges_Bank -0.012148242 0.012621505 -0.9625034
fixed NA regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.114884622 0.012637417 -9.0908308
fixed NA regionSouthern_New_England -0.117012827 0.012378032 -9.4532658
fixed NA sst_anom -0.004065130 0.009320448 -0.4361518
fixed NA landings:regionGeorges_Bank -0.006458479 0.012945264 -0.4989067
fixed NA landings:regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.031802414 0.013679938 -2.3247484
fixed NA landings:regionSouthern_New_England -0.005036802 0.012402315 -0.4061179
ran_pars year sd__(Intercept) 0.022544228 NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd__Observation 0.050777216 NA NA

Significance

npar AIC LRT Pr(Chi)
NA -436.8383 NA NA
sst_anom 1 -438.6385 0.1998047 0.6548785
landings:region 3 -435.7297 7.1086049 0.0685156

Fit & Predictions

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect

5-Year Smoothed Predictor Model

effect group term estimate std.error statistic
fixed NA (Intercept) -0.925286340 0.009426778 -98.15509603
fixed NA land_5 0.019084432 0.009964401 1.91526141
fixed NA regionGeorges_Bank -0.008202934 0.011842074 -0.69269404
fixed NA regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.111854877 0.011990018 -9.32899978
fixed NA regionSouthern_New_England -0.116485618 0.011704724 -9.95201773
fixed NA anom_5 -0.001404379 0.014197197 -0.09891946
fixed NA land_5:regionGeorges_Bank 0.005290628 0.012412550 0.42623218
fixed NA land_5:regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.033785136 0.013692523 -2.46741497
fixed NA land_5:regionSouthern_New_England -0.011822140 0.012133137 -0.97436792
ran_pars year sd__(Intercept) 0.022792284 NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd__Observation 0.050168060 NA NA

Significance

npar AIC LRT Pr(Chi)
NA -442.7303 NA NA
anom_5 1 -444.7201 0.0101711 0.9196679
land_5:region 3 -439.2276 9.5026805 0.0233029

Fit & Predictions

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect


Median Body Weight Models

How has median weight changed

Contemporary SST/Landings Model

effect group term estimate std.error statistic
fixed NA (Intercept) 0.176728059 0.009359083 18.883053
fixed NA landings 0.021297703 0.010155283 2.097204
fixed NA regionGeorges_Bank -0.019398093 0.011926868 -1.626420
fixed NA regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.124714909 0.011948834 -10.437413
fixed NA regionSouthern_New_England -0.121706242 0.011696896 -10.405003
fixed NA sst_anom -0.002809302 0.008914145 -0.315151
fixed NA landings:regionGeorges_Bank -0.013659094 0.012239620 -1.115974
fixed NA landings:regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.020025091 0.012965115 -1.544536
fixed NA landings:regionSouthern_New_England -0.018056535 0.011724685 -1.540044
ran_pars year sd__(Intercept) 0.022163153 NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd__Observation 0.047978561 NA NA

Fit & Predictions

Significance

npar AIC LRT Pr(Chi)
NA -452.6072 NA NA
sst_anom 1 -454.5014 0.1058008 0.7449765
landings:region 3 -455.4081 3.1991481 0.3619278

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect

5-Year Smoothed Predictor Model

effect group term estimate std.error statistic
fixed NA (Intercept) 0.17088659 0.008870858 19.2638172
fixed NA land_5 0.02683093 0.009353268 2.8686152
fixed NA regionGeorges_Bank -0.01466959 0.011082561 -1.3236639
fixed NA regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.12022181 0.011224651 -10.7105166
fixed NA regionSouthern_New_England -0.11868733 0.010954052 -10.8350156
fixed NA anom_5 0.01107564 0.013407216 0.8260954
fixed NA land_5:regionGeorges_Bank -0.00506618 0.011619881 -0.4359924
fixed NA land_5:regionMid_Atlantic_Bight -0.02535527 0.012852623 -1.9727704
fixed NA land_5:regionSouthern_New_England -0.02201549 0.011357699 -1.9383757
ran_pars year sd__(Intercept) 0.02197317 NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd__Observation 0.04694883 NA NA

Fit & Predictions

Significance

npar AIC LRT Pr(Chi)
NA -461.8534 NA NA
anom_5 1 -463.1299 0.7234317 0.3950205
land_5:region 3 -461.3420 6.5113491 0.0892160

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect


Region Random Effects

What if we swap Random effects

I don’t really care about regions, so what if we used region as a random effect. It should also eat variability similar to year as a random effect and maybe help resolve the temperature or landings effects.

Just to see:

Contemporary SST/Landings Model

effect group term estimate std.error df statistic p.value
fixed NA (Intercept) 0.109362822 0.028243777 145 3.8721033 0.0001627259
fixed NA landings 0.004371285 0.005859928 145 0.7459624 0.4568977897
fixed NA sst_anom -0.003793204 0.008033209 145 -0.4721904 0.6375007698
ran_pars survey_area sd_(Intercept) 0.054752813 NA NA NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd_Observation 0.053207811 NA NA NA NA

Fit & Predictions

Significance

Df AIC LRT Pr(>Chi)
NA -440.8509 NA NA
landings 1 -442.2872 0.5636696 0.4527855
sst_anom 1 -442.6271 0.2237871 0.6361694

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect

5-Year Smoothed Predictor Model

effect group term estimate std.error statistic
fixed NA (Intercept) -0.98269973 0.031874118 -30.8306483
fixed NA land_5 0.00173992 0.006155699 0.2826518
fixed NA anom_5 0.01589537 0.016403943 0.9689969
fixed NA land_5:anom_5 0.02932610 0.013546341 2.1648727
ran_pars survey_area sd__(Intercept) 0.06289653 NA NA
ran_pars Residual sd__Observation 0.05544279 NA NA

Significance

npar AIC LRT Pr(Chi)
NA -424.4753 NA NA
land_5:anom_5 1 -421.7740 4.701356 0.0301388

Fit & Predictions

Collinearity

SST Effect

Landings Effect

Variance Partitioning